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Canada


St. Albert—Sturgeon River


Latest projection: May 5, 2024
CPC safe hold
Note: The terms "hold" and "gain" are used to compare current projections with transposed 2021 results onto the new electoral map.
St. Albert—Sturgeon River 62% ± 8%▲ 22% ± 6%▼ 8% ± 3% 4% ± 5% CPC 2021 56.2% 338Canada Popular vote projection | May 5, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% St. Albert—Sturgeon River >99% <1% <1% Odds of winning | May 5, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | St. Albert—Sturgeon River

LPC 8% ± 3% CPC 62% ± 8% NDP 22% ± 6% PPC 4% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | St. Albert—Sturgeon River 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 LPC CPC NDP PPC May 5, 2024

Odds of winning | St. Albert—Sturgeon River

LPC <1% CPC >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 LPC CPC NDP May 5, 2024

Recent electoral history | St. Albert—Sturgeon River



2019 2021 Proj. CPC 69.6% 56.2% 62% ± 8% NDP 12.4% 23.5% 22% ± 6% LPC 12.3% 11.2% 8% ± 3% PPC 2.2% 7.8% 4% ± 5% GPC 2.8% 0.0% 0% ± 1%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.